Ultimi sviluppi: Ad aprile 2, L'amministrazione Trump ha implementato ufficialmente il “tariffa reciproca completa” politica, imponente a 10% tariffa base su quasi tutte le merci esportate negli Stati Uniti, e riscuotere le tariffe aggiuntive su partner commerciali come la Cina, l'Unione europea, e ASEAN (China’s highest is 104%, and ASEAN’s average is 33%)18. Questa politica ha causato shock nel sistema commerciale globale, e le compagnie del commercio estero stanno affrontando gravi sfide!
Impatto di base:
1️⃣ La differenziazione del settore si è intensificata:
Aree colpite: Elettronica, tessuti e abbigliamento, Il fotovoltaico e le nuove esportazioni di veicoli energetici sono le prime a sopportare il brunt! The United States is China’s largest textile export market, and the risk of order loss for small and medium-sized enterprises has increased; Southeast Asia’s re-export trade channels have been blocked, and corporate profit margins have been further compressed127.
Dramatic changes in cross-border e-commerce: Starting from May 2, China’s tax-free policy for small packages exported to the United States has ended. Platforms such as Shein and Temu are facing a surge in customs clearance costs, or are forced to turn to overseas warehouses to stock up or raise prices26.
2️⃣ Supply chain pressure increases sharply:
Companies that rely on the US market need to face rising costs (such as raw materials and logistics costs), and some orders have been canceled or transferred to non-US markets17.
Southeast Asian factory-building companies have suffered a “second blow”, with tax rates in Vietnam and Cambodia as high as 46%-49%, and traditional re-export routes have failed12.
Countermeasures:
✅ Market diversification: Accelerate the development of non-US markets such as the EU, the Middle East, and Africa to reduce single dependence! Although ASEAN has high tax rates, there is still potential for demand in emerging markets15.
✅ Supply chain adjustment: Optimize the layout of overseas warehouses, explore factories in Mexico, Latin America and other regions, and avoid tariff barriers27.
✅ Policy dividends: The National Development and Reform Commission has launched corporate assistance and studied precise measures such as tax exemption and subsidies; il “green channel” of the domestic demand market helps digest inventory, and export-to-domestic sales has become a new direction14.
Future outlook:
Short-term pain is inevitable, ma alla lunga, tariffs force industrial upgrading! Semiconductors, high-end manufacturing, and independent controllable fields may usher in structural opportunities45. As the global supply chain is reshaped, flexibility and resilience will be the key to companies’ breakthrough!
#Foreign Trade Dynamics #Tariff Impact #Supply Chain Change #Market Diversification
